February 7, 2003 (USA TODAY) -- Nearly four out of 10 adults in the USA will be obese within five years if people keep packing on pounds at the current rate -- putting their health at risk, says one of the top obesity researchers.
Currently, about 31%, or about 59 million people, are obese, which is defined as roughly 30 or more pounds over a healthy weight. Almost 65% are either obese or overweight, 10 to 30 pounds over a healthy weight, which increases their chances of developing diabetes, heart disease, some types of cancer and a host of other health problems.
The medical costs associated with treating these diseases will strain the health care system and economy in the years to come, experts say.
Americans are gaining one to two pounds a year, says James Hill, director of the Center for Human Nutrition at the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center in Denver. Hill predicts that, at the current rate, 39% of Americans will be obese by 2008.
He's one of several national weight-loss experts who offer possible solutions to the obesity epidemic in Friday's journal Science. This report comes on the heels of a landmark report in January that showed being obese shaves seven years off a person's life, and just being overweight shortens a person's life span by about three years.
To stop gaining weight, people need to either burn 100 calories more a day with physical activity or eat 100 calories less every day, Hill says. They could cut back a little on portions, skip one soda or walk one extra mile a day, which would take about 15 to 20 minutes, he says.
"This isn't going to cause you to lose a lot of weight, but it's going to keep you from gaining any more."
Other papers in Science address overweight and the role of:
* Genetics. Jeffrey Friedman, a scientist at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute at Rockefeller University, says basic differences in people's genetics may partly explain why some remain lean in the current environment of fast food and huge portion sizes, while others are hundreds of pounds overweight.
Friedman says about seven to 10 pounds of people's weight gain in the past decade is due to the environment. But he says the reason some folks are hundreds of pounds overweight is largely attributable to a set of genes, which compose a powerful physiological system that maintains consistency in weight in each individual.
The human body has complex biological systems that include hunger and appetite hormones that make losing weight and keeping it off very difficult, he says.
For instance, when people lose weight, levels of the hormone leptin drop, which makes them feel hungry and possibly slows downs their metabolism, he says.
"You can't blame it all in the environment. In trying to lose weight, the obese are fighting a difficult battle," Friedman says.
* Medical treatment. Xavier Pi-Sunyer, director of the Obesity Research Center and chief of endocrinology at St. Luke's-Roosevelt Hospital in New York, says health professionals, including doctors and nurses, need to have better training on how to treat obesity and spend more time helping patients lose weight and keep it off.
Plus, treatment programs, including diet and exercise support, need to be covered by insurance companies, HMOs and government programs such as Medicaid and Medicare, he says. Also, better medications are needed to help people lose weight.
"Weight loss is difficult, but possible to attain," Pi-Sunyer says. "Weight maintenance is harder but also possible."
Copyright 2003 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc.
